List of Abstracts 2017: SESSION B - PRODUCTION LOGISTICS, COMMERCIAL LOGISTICS, QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM, RISK MANAGEMENT
Date: June 28, 2017
Overuse of trade sales promotion to keep FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) in the range of retail stores results in a lot of negative impacts on all members of the supply chain network. One of the consequences is also an extreme increase in demand variability for FMCG manufacturers. However, such demand becomes unpredictable if only common forecasting methods are applied. This paper aims to find ways of forecasting the demand that is affected by frequent implementation of promotional events. Based on the case study conducted with a large Czech manufacturer of FMCG products, the paper first discusses the possibilities and barriers of the current theoretical approaches to demand forecasting of promoted products, which subsequently results in a proposal of a statistical forecasting method for over-promoted FMCG products. The proposed approach to demand forecasting combines a multiple regression model with an ARIMA model. By its application in the company involved in the research, they were able to decrease the statistical forecast error by 24%.
To solve specific complex logistics tasks, for example, the creation of models of operational production plans, especially if the role is large, given by a large number of machines and equipment involved in production processes, a wide range of products, a long production cycle, the plan is being prepared for several planning periods, pass through several production segments and need to coordinate these plans, the model must respect different types of constraints, etc., then it is difficult or sometimes impossible to create a mathematical model. To adapt the problem to some known mathematical model, e.g. linear optimization model, or the dynamic programming model, which at first glance are addressing the solution /, i.e., Its idealization often leads to the neglect of the essential features of the modeling problem, thereby reducing the practical usability of the results obtained through such models [1]. But people, logistics, planners, managers, solve such problems routinely in business management. One and often the only option to solve such problems is to model the procedures for solving these expert-heuristic approaches, using the appropriate exact models and the possibilities of computer science in those activities where its strength is greater than the force of man. The article has a theoretical character, but it is a generalization of dozens of solved logistics through a heuristic approach in practice. [2] The article defines the properties of the heuristic models, compares them with exact methods, defines common characteristics and differences. The exact and heuristic methods are not in an antagonistic relation; on the contrary, the heuristic methods after a proposal, are applied on the principle of" precision lead method "as an exact method. The heuristic approach combines the strong stand of the both methodologies. From heuristic methodology, this is especially modeling of decision-making processes and creative aspects of solution, from the exact methodologies it is performance of information systems.
There is a fear that a sharp increase in air transport volumes will result in an unacceptable increase in the number of accidents in the new future. Experience has demonstrates that before an accident occurs various incidents and numerous failures reveal the existence of safety risks. In this context, the risk assessment procedure consent the determination of the probability of the causes that generate accidents, and becomes an operative instrument, particularly efficient in the prevention of hazards. Airport operators deal with risk every day. The risk is sometimes within their control, and sometimes it is not. Although this approach has been successful for many years, safety performance needs to improve. With traffic growth, the number of accidents tends to increase if the level of safety remains constant. To preserve public confidence, the aviation industry, using new technologies and approaches like Safety Management System (SMS), needs to further reduce the chances of accidents. Safety Risk Management is the key operational component of an SMS - a creative method that looks into the future. Managing risk needs to be proactive and consider the specific characteristics of each airport. This article used a process to evaluate the performance of the SMS operations at Slovak international airports. The first stage was to acquire the weights and rankings of the SMS components and elements, and the second stage was to evaluate and rank their performance. The rankings of safety management system weights of components from high to low are: safety risk management, safety policy and objectives, safety promotion, and safety assurance.
Today, in information time, creation of forecasting in an enterprise is not only associated with the preparation of plans and considerations about possible future sales of products. It is still widely and widely used in many business activities, levels e.g. maintenance, consumption of expendable supplies, transport, energy, etc. This paper shows to the continued importance of classic quantitative forecasting methods because their application is not so complicated and there is no need to have costly software to prepare forecasts from different departments of an enterprise. There are also some description to the correct setting of parameters of some methods which, in addition to input data, require additional data for particular calculations.
The purpose of the paper is the analysis of the importance of logistics in a strategic planning illustrated by the example of selected European capital cities. In order to attain the goal the following questions have been developed:
What is the role of logistics in a city strategic development?
What are strategic goals for city logistics in selected European capital cities and whether they are compatible with European Union strategic aims in this field?
What kind of long term projects have been developed regarding strategic goals in analyzed cities?
The results of the survey will be presented in the article. Moreover, the strategic documents developed by European Commission and by selected capital cities will be analyzed.
Date: June 28, 2017
The contemporary logistic systems are very complex and their control requires multidisciplinary range of expertise. Dynamic simulation is a tool allowing the decision maker to compare many possible scenarios and helps to find the optimal solution. It finds application in planning, designing, and optimization of production and logistic systems, including the allocation of material flows. Dynamic simulation represents the process of creating a mathematical and logical model of a system on a computer. Experimenting with the model enables user to discover logical connections among the processes and to evaluate the performance of many different structures in a relatively short time. Nowadays the market offers wide choice of simulation software. Part of the paper is devoted to describing the Witness simulation environment. Applications based on Witness dynamic simulation enable to configure optimal solution for material handling in warehouses and production plants. It leads to optimal utilization of resources and smooth material flow focused on customer, and so are satisfy his individual requirements.
Informatization, digitalization and automation of production and logistic processes became a part of a new industrial revolution especially due to the fact that specific and customizable software are used to manage these processes. Informatization and digitalization is the base of automation of production and logistic processes. The basis for informatization and digitalization represented by the development of information system, however, is a set of process innovations. These innovations arise as a consequence of process analysis, without which it is not possible to propose an optimal process structure and its characteristics. The paper presents the results of an empirical research whose aim was to analyse selected aspects of process innovations induced by introduction of production and logistics processes automation.
The article deals with the development of computer simulation with a focus on the use in the field of logistics. Computer simulation has passed since the last century long development. The beginnings associated with general program tools with a focus on random number generators have gradually replaced systems that are specially and exclusively oriented to modular, block creation of computer simulation models. At present, it is common and obvious that the computer simulation model is made up of blocks that perform precisely defined functions. Within logistics, the use of computer simulation is common and desirable. Logistics is made up of elements such as purchase - production - sales in relation to other identical chains. This chain allows simulation to use the same principle of creating computer simulation models that are made up of typed blocks such as input, queue, service device, output. Principles of computer simulation models still remain the same but changing the view of the resulting display and conduct simulations which enable new and realistic 3D and realistically oriented computer simulation systems.
If a company is to generate profit it must actively react to the changing demands of the market. In order to meet current customer demands a company must make sure it is adhering to the 7R rule. With the modern market however, meeting this single condition may not be sufficient to maintain competitiveness. It is becoming increasingly common for today`s client to expect a product precisely matching his requirements (or personalized). This forces companies to create/design flexible processes and abandon MTS (Make to Stock) in favour of MTO (Make to Order). The company model discussed in this article specializes mainly in the production of windows, doors and window blinds. In the special products section, the client may influence the final look and functionality by choosing features such as shape, dimensions or accessories of the manufactured stock. This is a 100% custom production. One of such products is the HST Hebe-Schiebe-Tur window. A significant increase in demand forces changes leading to an improvement of the production process. A simple analysis allowed for the processes to be uniformized to a degree and to devise a new work-system organization proposal.